Match Prediction: Heroic - Xtreme Gaming | Dota 2
DreamLeague Season 23Welcome to EGamersWorld.
We continue to watch the action at DreamLeague Season 23. Slowly but surely it's getting to the end of the group stage of the last major tournament of the ESL Pro Tour 2024 season.
We're talking about the final confrontations of Group A. And in the first round of Day 3, Heroic and Xtreme will play their match in Group A.
Let's see if The International will riga in this confrontation or if the match will end the way it should, namely with Xtreme's victory.
Let's go.
Xtreme Form
We open the match breakdown with an analysis of Xtreme's match form. In this match they will play as favourites to win with odds to win around 1.6.
At DPC 2023: China Upper Division Xtreme Gaming were ranked in the top 5. For a team with such a roster, that result was not just unacceptable, but rather terrible.
The deplorable state of Xtreme Gaming became even more evident after The Lima Major 2023, where Paparazzi and company did not qualify. At the tournament in Peru, only Aster and PSG.LGD showed some promise, while Knights and Ehome, who Xtreme Ledge played in their home league, were suspected of using cheats and ceased to exist after Lima.
However, Xtreme managed to pull itself together. The team called up the experienced Kaka for the fourth position and started to play. Xtreme won their home league with this squad. In this lineup they travelled to Berlin, where they made it to the group stage of The Berlin Major 2023. However, they finished in the top 12, which is not very good.
The third round was a nightmare for Xtreme. They finished in the top 5, which is not a critical indicator, but for teams of Paparazzi and company level, not making it to the Major with not the strongest competition is a failure.
- Xtreme Gaming lineup: Ghost, Paparazzi, JT, XinQ, Dy.
Before the Long Copeg Riyadh Masters 2023, Xtreme Gaming invited XinQ to the team. The PSG.LGD legend was supposed to strengthen the roster, but Xtreme got about the same as they had at the previous championships - Top 16.
They made their debut at The International 2023 - China Qualifier with a match against Aster.Aries. Despite 2-0 on the scoreboard, Xtreme Gaming still had to deal with Aster's youth. They also looked good throughout the qualifiers, but Xtreme was not enough for the grand finals: Azure Ray celebrated their victory and passage to the TI.
The new competitive year started with a performance at BB Dacha Dubai 2024, where they took TOP-8.
They played at DreamLeague Season 22, where they reached the TOP-3. After that, Xtreme Gaming won the Elite League.
The series of successful championships was interrupted at ESL One Birmingham 2024. There Xtreme Gaming made it to the play-offs, but failed to jump above the top 8.
Xtreme Gaming shined at PGL Wallachia Season 1. The Chinese didn't lose a single map until the grand finals, where they let their guard down: Team Spirit beat Xtreme Gaming 3-2, thus "stealing" the deserved title from Ame and company.
Xtreme Gaming will start DreamLeague Season 23 with a match against Aurora, where they must win. On the first day of DL S23, Xtreme earned one win and one loss. The second day came with one win and one draw.
Xtreme Gaming's most popular heroes
The most popular hero of Xtreme Gaming is Storm Spirit. Paparazzi played it 5 times, but won only 2 matches.
We also took Alchemist (4 matches, 75% wins), Phoenix (4 matches, 50% wins), Keeper of the Light (4 matches, 25% wins), Rubick (4 matches, 25% wins).
There was also Pangolier, Underlord, Pugna, Dragon Knight. All heroes appeared 3 times and won 2 matches each.
Heroic Form
We continue the match analysis with an analysis of Heroic's form. In this match they play an obvious number two with odds to win around 7.3.
Heroic is a new name for the Dota 2 competitive scene. While the team is well known outside of Valve's professional MOBA scene, the club has been slow to sign a roster in that discipline. In 2023, that changed.
Heroic came to Dota 2 signing South American mix D2 Hustlers, while changing it up a bit. Heroic's final, debut roster looked like this:
- Heroic roster: K1, 4nalog, Davai Lama, Scofield, KJ.
Each player is pretty well known at his position and it seems like such a team should work. At least on the local scene, within their region, Heroic look pretty good, though not perfect.
During the 2024 competitive season, the club finished Top 8 at DreamLeague Season 22: South America Open Qualifier #1, Top 2 at BB Dacha Dubai 2024: NA and SA Closed Qualifier, and then won DL Season 22: South America Open Qualifier #2 and DL Season 22: South America Closed Qualifier, beating BOOM 2-0 in the grand finals.
The last tournament before DL Season 22 was the South American qualifiers for ESL Birmingham 2024. There Heroic again defeated BOOM in the grand finals, thus securing a slot for the first major LAN tournament of the year.
After the first match day Heroic are on the 4th line of the group stage table with 1-1 in matches and 2-2 in maps. They outplayed G2.IG and Ledge or Vp. The second day passed with a similar score: 1 win and 1 loss. On the third game day we played a draw with BB Team and lost to GG. However, they failed to move further into the top 14.
Next, Heroic made it to DL Season 23 and played Elite League at TOP-16, and then it was TOP-8 at ESL One Birmingham 2024. After two days of games Heroic have two draws, a loss and a win to their credit.
Heroic's most popular heroes
Natures Prophet and Rubick appeared most often in spades. Both characters have been taken 4 times each and have 100% wins.
Vengeful Spirit, Beastmaster and Tusk have appeared a similar number of times. They have won 3 matches each out of 4 appearances.
History of head-to-head meetings between Xtreme and Heroic
The teams have played each other twice in the 2024 season. Each has a win.
Predicted result of Xtreme vs Heroic at DreamLeague Season 23
Heroic have a very good Dota 2 performance, while being the nominal outsider of Group A. Being in the play-offs after two days can be called a success, considering that they are competing against more serious clubs. However, I don't think they will be able to do anything against Xtreme. The latter are on the verge of not making it to the next stage, and you need to gain EPT points, no matter how you go about it.
Bottom line: Xtreme wins.
Heroic is the 17th team in the world ranking. The guys are giving unexpected results even for their region. They managed to get through the qualifications with the only slot at ESL One Birmingham and DreamLeague Season 23. Elite League was not too spectacular for the team. We didn't get very high at all, 15th place. But they played relatively well at ESL One Birmingham 2024, where they managed to get the 7th place. Considering the usual achievements of the team this is a growth. PGL, however, brought everything back to the usual line, where they took the last place out of 18.
Xtreme Gaming is the 3rd team in the world rankings. The lineup includes Ame, Xm, Xxs, XinQ and Dy by position respectively. They were not very impressive at BB Dacha, gaining a modest 8th place. But they did impress at DreamLeague Season 22. And once again they pleased their fans at Elite League. They managed to lift the championship trophy. Surprising. But for some reason they failed in the next tournament. Out of 12 positions, they only made it to 8th. Very unstable. They surprised again at PGL, reaching the 2nd place without losing a card, but in the grand final they gave the victory to Spirit.
Xtreme is the undisputed favourite in this case, but it's not profitable to take their win, so I'll consider the outsider's bet.
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Prediction: +1.5 Heroic!
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Bookmakers & Statistics
Xtreme Gaming are listed as the favorites of the match in the majority of bookmakers and odds on them are equal to 1.416. Heroic, in turn, are the outsiders of the match. Odds on their victory are about 6.268.
What the team performance statistics say
Last Matches | Heroic | Xtreme Gaming |
5 matches (wins) | 0 | 5 |
10 matches (wins) | 2 | 9 |
Also it makes sense to remember the statistics of the matches between the teams. The competitors have held 2 matches. And Heroic won 1 times while Xtreme Gaming correspondingly became the winner 1 times.